Chad’s Top Sports Picks April 27
We end up splitting going 1-1 on the day in a couple of games that could have really gone either way, which is probably considered “fair” from the gambling gods.
This brings the overall record to:
17-6-1 74% +12.91 Units
Onto today where I absolutely love the opening round game of round 2 for the NHL playoffs with a nice little system explanation that will be put in use this weekend. And of course a couple of MLB picks. The NBA playoffs start this weekend so make to sure check out some of those picks coming up.
NASHVILLE PREDATORS -104 @ Phoenix Coyotes
- I believe the Predators are the superior team and will win this series. In order to do so it will require a strong start on the road which means I expect at the bare minimum a split if not winning both road games. So I will apply a strategy often used in this scenario, if you don’t see the road team going down 0-2 you simply wager 1 unit on them for game one, in the even they lose a simple double down in game 2 all they need to do is win 1 game to produce a profit. But, what if they lose both one could ask? The answer is they will not and I will explain why? The Coyotes play a similar style of hockey as the Predators grind it out, block shots, play physical rely on strong goaltending and scoring by committee. The problem is they just are not simply as good at that style of play as the Preds. They have a few more offensive gambreakers in Radulov, Kostitsyn and Bourque. And most importantly the best defenseman in the game with Weber and his partner Suter. The only reason the Coyotes beat the Hawks was due to Smith standing on his head not actually outplaying them. This will not continue into round two because they simply will not be able to score on a much better goalie in Rinne and overall D. I look for Nashville to completely wear them down and find easier ways to score on Smith by going hard to the net to score some dirty. Also, last year’s playoff experience against Vancouver makes this team more prepared for this series then Phoenix who is in a similar position to Nasvhille last year never having been in the second round. In addition, on the road the Coyotes are a mediocre 22-20 all year long compared to the Preds who just came off two straight victories at a far more hostile environment at Joe Louis to up their overall season road record to 24-19. We now have the luxry of a pick em price on the better team in a venue that should not affect them negatively in any which way.
UNDER 9 TAMPA BAY RAYS (James Shields)/TEXAS RANGERS (Matt Harrison)
- The Texas Rangers have been the #1 team in all of baseball playing to UNDERS for all of last season and to start this season. That is for a reason, the general public perception is this team is great offensively so bettors naturally think OVER. Because of this it has forced oddsmakers to set higher totals which works to our advantage when two good pitchers take to the hill. James Shields has been phenomenal since his opening day shellacking at Yankee Stadium having now pitched 24 innings over his past three starts only surrendering 3 runs, with two of those starts coming against two elite hitting lineups at Detroit & Boston. So there is no reason not to believe this dominance cannot continue at Arlington Park. As good as the Rangers offense has been they have not been that explosive at home only scoring 4+ runs in 4 of its 10 home games so far. Their starter Matt Harrison continues to improve every year by leaps and bounds to the point where he’s posted a staggering 1.66 ERA through 3 games this year which cannot be considered a fluke coming off a career year last year with a 3.30 ERA. If he was going to potentially get roughed up it won’t be coming from the Rays bats who are average at best who have only scored more then 4 runs twice in their past six outings. In particular their games have been very low scoring with five straight games playing to the UNDER of this total.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS +1.5 -125 (Ross Detwiller) @ LOS ANGELES DODGERS (Clayton Kershaw)
- Our run with the Washington Nationals came to a halt last night with a blown lead in the 8th inning. One disturbing trend that has emerged over the past couple of games is the complete lack of offense. I think a lot of this can be attributed to losing their best hitter Zimmerman and going up against good pitching. The setting does not change here going up against 2011 Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw who picked up right where he left off with a 1.61 ERA through his first four starts. While I believe the Nationals have a great chance to win this game as big underdogs at +189 I think there is even better value taking them on the run line despite having to lay some juice. Because Ross Detwiller has been every bit as good as Kershaw with a 0.56 ERA through three stars. This is no fluke either as he’s a highly touted prospect drafted 6th overall in 2007. I can see this game being extremely close until the late innings something like 1-1 or 2-2 but don’t trust this Nationals bullpen right now due to them being used heavily for three straight days against the Padres. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have had a full day off to recoup after losing their first two games at Chavez Ravine all season to Atlanta. I can see them pulling out a late one run victory. Despite all those negatives for Washington I like them to keep this game close if they lose at all because they are 6-3 on the road this season having only lost one game by more then a run. As for the Dodgers they don’t have a good enough offense to create a big lead against a pitcher this good, despite being 7-2 at home this year only 3 of those games have been by more then 1 run.
SEATTLE MARINERS +1.5 -125 (Blake Beaven) @ Toronto Blue Jays (Ricky Romero)
- The Mariners are coming in on fire having just swept the Tigers on the road while the Jays are in the exact opposite spot having lost three straight in a row. The only the reason the Jays are favored by nearly 2 dollars is due to Romero’s reputation, which he is worthy of. But, I still don’t believe he is one of the top end aces in the majors has been hittable in the past. And if he was laying this type of price you would think it was against a scrub opponent pitcher. That can hardly be the case as little known Blake Beaven has identical numbers to Romero with a 3.26 ERA and 1.09 WHIP this year. He’s finally starting to live up to the expectations of being a 1st round pick in 2007 who was a key player they received in the Cliff Lee trade a few years ago. He’s already gone up against the best offense in the AL in Texas this year only allowing 1 run in 6 IP. The good news here is he’s not exactly going up against a good offense, or at least one that is not clicking on all cylinders as the Jays have only scored 3 runs in their past 3 games I don’t expect them to start knocking around Beaven. Just like the Nationals of course I believe they can win this game as big dogs but believe there is even more value playing them on the RL because even if they lose this game I expect it to be tight the entire way through. Toronto is only 4-5 at home this year, while the Mariners are on fire this year away from Safeco with a record of 5-2. Give me the hotter team with an underrated pitcher to keep this game close if not win it.