NFL week 16 Top 3 Picks ATS
Another winning week in the books as we continue to rack up the units in what has been an incredible last couple of months making the early season struggles nothing but an after thought in the rear view mirror. Yes we only went 2-1 and lost out on the Gold selection of the week again taking the New York Giants. Once again on back to back weeks my top pick went down in flames due to some extremely weird things happening in the final minutes of games. It doesn’t faze me because the logic used in those selections was bang on, its just unfortunate that we can’t cap coaches changing their methods when they get big leads.
Anyways…. we will end the bitching at that… the record now sits at 24-20-1 55%
Gold: 8-6-1 57%
Silver: 9-5 64%
Bronze: 7-8 47%
The videos are back up and running at BetUS.com. However, my gold selection comes from the Monday Nighter and that won’t be posted on the site until Monday so I will give a brief write up for now.
GOLD: OVER 48.5 NEW ORLEANS/ATLANTA
Much like we alluded to last week with the Saints offense rolling the Falcons are in the same category absolutely rolling. Atlanta has scored 26+ points in 8 of its last 9 games, while the Saints have scored 24+ in 6 of its past 7. The Saints rank 7th overall in offense with the Falcons ranking 12th. Nothing over the top amazing in terms of rankings, but its the efficieny of these teams with elite QB’s that allows them to make the most of their opportunities.
What’s even better is the strengths & weakness’s of these offenses & defenses play perfectly into cashing this over. Even though the Saints rank 7th in overall D their strength comes from the pass D, well guess what their run D ranks 22nd which plays into the hands of the Falcons who are a run first team behind the strength of Michael Turner who rank 7th in the NFL. He is such a tank it helps open up the passing game for Ryan. For the Falcons their is middle of the pack but it’s biggest weakness is 20th against the pass which will go up against Brees and the 3rd ranked offense.
Still not convinced… since Matt Ryan came into the league every single time these teams have hooked up the game has exceeded 48 points, throw in a few more games before his time and since 2007 every time these NFC South juggernauts have hooked up it has been a shootout.
With the lights camera action of the final Monday Nighter expect both teams to play with maximum effort having this game still effect playoff positioning, division titles & potential byes. These are two elite offenses ranking in the top 7 in scoring, the oddsmakers ahve completely missed the boat with this total setting it far to low just because they rank half decent defensively. It should easily be in the 50′s.
So pound the OVER sit back and enjoy watching the last MNF game of the year.
SILVER: BALTIMORE -3 @ Cleveland
BRONZE: TEASER SAN DIEGO & TAMPA BAY
OVER 43.5 SEATTLE/TAMPA BAY
DETROIT +3.5 @ Miami
BUFFALO +9 vs. New England
INDIANAPOLIS -2 @ Oakland
The rest of the board is extremely difficult so I plan on using these teams in teasers mixing and matching
Good luck on your selections for this holiday season. Maybe you will receive a gift from the gambling Gods.
Picks by Chad Margulius